Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Both writes two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
